Before the election, I made my predictions; unlike the people on TV, I will compare them to what really happened:
Obama wins with 355 electoral votes.
He won, but it looks like he will get 364 (although I did leave open the possibility of a North Carolina win, which put him over my guess).
Obama will get at least 53% of the vote, and will have the most votes of anyone in history.
According to the NY Times, he got 53.1%, and his 63 million votes is more than a million more than the prior record holder.
There will be record voter turnout.
The 231 million voters was the most ever by over 10 million, and the percentage of both registered and eligible voters was the highest in recent years, although I have heard that it was higher in 1908 by one computation.
Democrats will have 60 senators.
I missed this one. I did not account for the fact that Alaskans would return an 84 year old convicted felon to the Senate. But they did. How I overestimated the voters who elected Sarah Palin, I don't know.
The Snikk Blog will have called the race by 8:15 CT, if not earlier.
It was about 8:45.
The stock market will finish the week substantially higher on news of the Obama win (or, if I am wrong on the results, it will be substantially lower on the news of the McCain win).
Check back at the end of the week.
First state to be called by the networks: Vermont.
Vermont tied with Kentucky.
Closest state: Missouri.
Missouri still isn't done, but it looks like the difference will be less than 5,000 votes, well less than 1%, by far the closest.
Most lopsided (other than DC): Idaho.
Way off here. The McCain state that was the most lopsided was Oklahoma where he got 66%, but Obama got 72% in Hawaii (including the vote of his grandmother, who died before election day, something that I have been hearing about from the McCain supporters around me (see posting of 11/3 "McCain: Why?") who can't accept the fact that their guy lost fairly). McCain only got 61% in Idaho. (The predictably greatest total difference was DC, where Obama received over 93%).
Unlike nearly all losing VP candidates, we have not heard the last of Sarah Palin.
We'll see.
Looking Forward
3 years ago
5 comments:
Your predictions were much better than mine. Check your overall vote total though. I think you added wrong.
What is next for your blog now that you've successfully kept McCain from winning?
Good point. I think that they came from different sources, and one of the sources was not final results. We'll try to get it corrected tomorrow.
Chilly Dog
I just heard that there are still four senate races too close to call, including Alaska. You could still be right on that one, but it doesn't look likely.
The stock market will finish the week substantially higher on news of the Obama win (or, if I am wrong on the results, it will be substantially lower on the news of the McCain win).
Check back at the end of the week.
Are you predicting a huge rally tomorrow?
Tim,
About the Senate, it looks like we were right about Oregon, so the only other two are Georgia and Minnesota. Georgia will require a run off because nobody got 50%, and Minnesota will have a recount because the SNL guy is so close. We think that the Alaskans voted for the criminal because when he goes to jail he will have to be replaced, and their new senator will be Sarah Palin because the Alaskans want to get her as far from their state as possible.
We will have to revise the prediction about the stock market. It probably will be up tomorrow, but may not get into its big upswing for a week or two.
Chilly Dog
PS Barney should have bit someone earlier. If it was me, I would have bitten Dick Cheney.
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