Before the election, I made my predictions; unlike the people on TV, I will compare them to what really happened:
Obama wins with 355 electoral votes.
He won, but it looks like he will get 364 (although I did leave open the possibility of a North Carolina win, which put him over my guess).
Obama will get at least 53% of the vote, and will have the most votes of anyone in history.
According to the NY Times, he got 53.1%, and his 63 million votes is more than a million more than the prior record holder.
There will be record voter turnout.
The 231 million voters was the most ever by over 10 million, and the percentage of both registered and eligible voters was the highest in recent years, although I have heard that it was higher in 1908 by one computation.
Democrats will have 60 senators.
I missed this one. I did not account for the fact that Alaskans would return an 84 year old convicted felon to the Senate. But they did. How I overestimated the voters who elected Sarah Palin, I don't know.
The Snikk Blog will have called the race by 8:15 CT, if not earlier.
It was about 8:45.
The stock market will finish the week substantially higher on news of the Obama win (or, if I am wrong on the results, it will be substantially lower on the news of the McCain win).
Check back at the end of the week.
First state to be called by the networks: Vermont.
Vermont tied with Kentucky.
Closest state: Missouri.
Missouri still isn't done, but it looks like the difference will be less than 5,000 votes, well less than 1%, by far the closest.
Most lopsided (other than DC): Idaho.
Way off here. The McCain state that was the most lopsided was Oklahoma where he got 66%, but Obama got 72% in Hawaii (including the vote of his grandmother, who died before election day, something that I have been hearing about from the McCain supporters around me (see posting of 11/3 "McCain: Why?") who can't accept the fact that their guy lost fairly). McCain only got 61% in Idaho. (The predictably greatest total difference was DC, where Obama received over 93%).
Unlike nearly all losing VP candidates, we have not heard the last of Sarah Palin.
1 year ago