Review of Election Predictions

Before the election, I made my predictions; unlike the people on TV, I will compare them to what really happened:

Obama wins with 355 electoral votes.
He won, but it looks like he will get 364 (although I did leave open the possibility of a North Carolina win, which put him over my guess).

Obama will get at least 53% of the vote, and will have the most votes of anyone in history.
According to the NY Times, he got 53.1%, and his 63 million votes is more than a million more than the prior record holder.

There will be record voter turnout.
The 231 million voters was the most ever by over 10 million, and the percentage of both registered and eligible voters was the highest in recent years, although I have heard that it was higher in 1908 by one computation.

Democrats will have 60 senators.
I missed this one. I did not account for the fact that Alaskans would return an 84 year old convicted felon to the Senate. But they did. How I overestimated the voters who elected Sarah Palin, I don't know.

The Snikk Blog will have called the race by 8:15 CT, if not earlier.
It was about 8:45.

The stock market will finish the week substantially higher on news of the Obama win (or, if I am wrong on the results, it will be substantially lower on the news of the McCain win).
Check back at the end of the week.

First state to be called by the networks: Vermont.
Vermont tied with Kentucky.

Closest state: Missouri.
Missouri still isn't done, but it looks like the difference will be less than 5,000 votes, well less than 1%, by far the closest.

Most lopsided (other than DC): Idaho.
Way off here. The McCain state that was the most lopsided was Oklahoma where he got 66%, but Obama got 72% in Hawaii (including the vote of his grandmother, who died before election day, something that I have been hearing about from the McCain supporters around me (see posting of 11/3 "McCain: Why?") who can't accept the fact that their guy lost fairly). McCain only got 61% in Idaho. (The predictably greatest total difference was DC, where Obama received over 93%).

Unlike nearly all losing VP candidates, we have not heard the last of Sarah Palin.
We'll see.

OBAMA DEFEATS MCCAIN

None of the networks are calling it yet, but it is now clear. With the 200 votes that the networks have projected, another 59 for the guaranteed Obama states of California and Hawaii, and another 18 for Washington and Oregon, he is well about the 270 he needs to win. The election is over! The networks should realize this soon.

Election Predictions

This is my prediction of what the map will look like tomorrow night. If I did this a day earlier I would have had Obama winning 370, giving him either North Carolina or Georgia, and maybe another 11 for Indiana, but I got a little conservative on election eve. I wouldn't be too surprised if the total was 370 to 390, but I am sticking with 355 for now.


Other predictions:
Obama will get at least 53% of the vote, and will have the most votes of anyone in history.
There will be record voter turnout.
Democrats will have 60 senators.
The Snikk Blog will have called the race by 8:15 CT, if not earlier.
The stock market will finish the week substantially higher on news of the Obama win (or, if I am wrong on the results, it will be substantially lower on the news of the McCain win).
First state to be called by the networks: Vermont.
Closest state: Missouri.
Most lopsided (other than DC): Idaho.
And finally....
Unlike nearly all losing VP candidates, we have not heard the last of Sarah Palin.

McCain: Why?

I took a survey of McCain voters that I know and asked them what the reason for their support of him is. The actual responses include:

"Obama is a socialist."
"Obama thinks that there are 57 states, so he is obviously unqualified" (referring to Obama's misstatement that he had visited 57 states during the campaign, apparently ignoring McCain's numerous misstatements)
"Obama wants to redistribute the wealth." (spoken by a person who lives paycheck to paycheck, and could use some redistribution)
"Those black people think that they should get everything we have without working for it. I am tired of them having 10 children and demanding welfare, and Obama will make sure that continues."
"Obama wants to merge the US with Canada and Mexico, and I don't want to be in the same country as all those Mexicans."
"Abortion"
"Obama thinks that abortions should be legal in the case of a woman whose life is threatened by a pregnancy; there is never a reason to choose the mother's life over the baby."
"Democrats favor immoral issues like gay rights, abortion, the destruction of the family, and legalizing drugs, and I would never vote for a Democrat."
"Obama never produced his birth certificate. I think that he was born in Kenya and I don't want an African running our country."
"Joe Biden is scary. His plan to deal with Iraq is insane."

All of these are actual responses. Any McCain voters reading this, feel free to leave your reasons in the comments.

Message from Barack to Andy

My dog Andy, an early Obama supporter when the rest of us were for Hillary, has been corresponding with Mr. Obama alot lately. Here is the latest.



Andrew --

We're just one day away from change. Election Day is tomorrow -- Tuesday, November 4th.

We've asked you to do a lot over the course of this campaign, and you've always come through.

When this campaign began, we weren't given much of a chance by the pollsters or the pundits.

But tomorrow, we can make history.

We've made it this far because supporters like you never stopped believing in your power to bring about real change.

Take the final step now.

Watch the video, find your polling location, and get everyone you know involved on Election Day:

http://my.barackobama.com/nov4

With your vote, and the votes of your friends, family, and neighbors, we won't just win this election -- together, we will change this country and change the world.

Thank you,

Barack

Update on the Puppies

It has been two weeks since I first saw my three new little next door neighbors. Now they can see me; they first opened their eyes a few days ago. Today they went outside for the first time.

McCain Top Advisor: Palin Qualified? "Of Course Not"

Larry Eagleburger, Secretary of State for Bush I and one of the 4 former secretaries of state that McCain could remember who has endorsed him (see posting of October 26), was designated by the McCain campaign to make the case for him on foreign policy issues on NPR Thursday. While Sarah Palin gets lots of criticism from the other side, it is interesting to hear the words of McCain's friends:

Host: You mentioned experience--Are you entirely comfortable with Sarah Palin as the Vice President of the United States, that she would be able to take over in a crisis if she should be terribly called upon to do so?

Eagleburger: That is a good question. (chuckle) I am being facetious here.
Look...of course not. I don't think at the moment she is prepared to take over the reigns of the presidency...
So the question I think is: Can she learn and would she be tough enough under the circumstances if she were asked to become president? Heaven forbid that that ever takes place. Give her some time in the office and I think the answer would be she will be (dramatic pause) adequate. I can't say she would be a genious in the job but I think that she would be enough to get us though a four year--I hope not--get us through whatever period of time was necessary
And I devoutely hope that it would never be tested.

So true.

(the whole interview can be heard at http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=96329379
with the Palin portion in the last two minutes).